News & Insights

Do Treasuries Come in Pumpkin Spice Flavor?

A peculiar consumer preference this time of year is pumpkin spice. It’s in lattes, muffins, beer, and pretty much any food and drink product.

Lunar Landing - 50^th Anniversary

On July 20, 2019, America will celebrate the 50^th Anniversary of the first lunar landing. It was the Apollo 11 mission that took Neil Armstrong and Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin, Jr. to the surface of the moon.

The Greatest of All Time In recent years, a certain 41-year-old New England quarterback has had his playing ability scrutinized by fans who try to call the “top” of his game.

“Winter is coming” is the House Stark motto in the HBO series Game of Thrones, which can be interpreted as one needs to stay vigilant for what lies ahead. Similar to the Starks, equity markets are always assessing and reassessing what the future holds.

In baseball parlance, the seventh inning stretch is a tradition in which fans stand up in the middle of the seventh inning and stretch after sitting through 6½ innings of a game. Some teams, such as the Chicago Cubs, have made it an experience as fans sing along with Bill Murray to “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.”

As we celebrate Independence Day, patriotism soars in America. U.S. flags fly high and patriotic music is played in bars and restaurants. Bruce Springsteen’s “Born in the USA” is a popular song this time of year, with its upbeat melody and its well-known chorus.

Not so long ago, in our own galaxy, synchronized global economic growth was an invisible “force” that rendered volatility practically non-existent. J.P. Morgan observed that there were zero days in 2017 when equity markets experienced a daily move of 2% or greater when, “since 1980, U.S. equities have averaged 15 such occurrences a year.”

It is beginning to sound like a broken record, but the stronger-than-expected economic growth has boosted investor confidence and produced excellent returns for equities around the world.  Looking forward, we expect U.S. growth to stabilize and the global economy to grow stronger. Driving the global economic expansion is central bank easy monetary policies, low interest rates, low inflation and the rise in emerging economies’ commodity prices. 

It appears that investors have finally acknowledged the current synchronized global expansion. A backdrop of steady economic growth, low inflation, and easy monetary policy has created a goldilocks scenario for corporate earnings and stocks.

Expectations for global growth are rising. The near decade long bull market has been notable not just for its length, but also the negative lens investors have viewed it through. For anyone who regularly reads financial publications or watches investment news on television, the impression left seems to be one of worry due to sluggish – but positive – economic growth and concerns about geopolitical events. That narrative has begun to turn in recent months. In the first quarter, S&P 500 companies reported a 14% earnings improvement from a year earlier, along with 75% of companies beating